Egypt vs. Sudan?

This guy says Egypt may have serious issues by February. The country imports nearly half its food (by calories) and according to the CIA factbook its overall imports are nearly double its exports in US dollars. So they’re not facing an uncomfortable economic contraction; they’re facing mass starvation in the streets. With the rest of the world still wallowing in the economic doldrums (which Greece, or China, or California could suddenly turn into another crisis), tourism is unlikely to surge to the rescue.

Goldman and Totten take some comfort in pointing out how unlikely Egypt is to start a war with Israel over this. Frankly, I have no idea why they would. Israel is only one of Egypt’s neighbors, and two among them are richer in terms of natural resources and currently still recovering from internal conflict. To the west, Libya is still trying to pull itself together from the ousting of Kaddafi. There’s no guarantee the country isn’t going to fall further into civil war as the victorious tribes vie for top spot. Egypt could potentially shave off a few of the eastern provinces and enrich itself significantly.

However, the EU has a strong interest in a stable Libya pumping lots of oil. They’ll likely only welcome Egyptian interference as a last resort. Obama also has some interest in a stable, peaceful Libya as well, and Egypt probably doesn’t want to piss off the US (according to the CIA factbook, Egypt gets 10% of its imports from the US, and I suspect a lot of that is food). So Libya is a slightly less likely target of Egyptian aggression than Israel.

On Egypt’s southern border, however, is Sudan. Nobody likes Sudan on account of them engaging in a genocidal civil war against the populations of their southern territories, still in the process of separating from the northern part of the country. While the south got 80% of the oil reserves in the armistice, the north still retains other rich minerals and the primary port for shipping the south’s oil out to the world, as well as most of the refining capacity.

Animosity between Sudan and Egypt is literally ancient. Sudan doesn’t have many friends in the world. The nations most likely to protest are China and Japan, Sudan’s biggest customers for their oil. China, with but one aircraft carrier that’s not yet combat-ready, doesn’t have the physical means to intervene, and Japan almost certainly lacks the political will to do so. Even southern Sudan is likely to cheer Egypt putting its foot on its genocidal neighbor’s neck.

According to Wikipedia, Egypt’s army is four times larger than Sudan’s was before the country was divided, and Egypt’s only rival in the number of modern battle tanks is Israel. If Egypt can master the logistical difficulties of marching south across the desert, they could conceivably win both wealth, renown, and a boost to the nation’s moral and the prestige of the army in a short, victorious war against Sudan.

The alternatives appear to be returning hat-in-hand to the IMF, which maybe they’re willing to do after the elections in November? Also, the US could possibly placate Egypt by offering a lend-lease kind of deal on grain, though that may be less likely now that the summer's proven so brutal to our corn crop that the EPA is easing demands on ethanol use at American gas pumps.

Finally, while China may not be able to intervene militarily, they can do so financially. If Egypt only makes noises about invading Sudan, that might convince the Chinese that all the money they've sunk into the country is at risk. That could convince them to make low-interest loans to Egypt, possibly in exchange for preferential treatment for Chinese ships moving through the Suez Canal.

So the real question is, why did Egypt turn down an offer of assistance from the IMF? Was it pride, or politics, or were the IMF's terms unacceptable? How much will that change, if at all, after the elections in November? Will Egypt be more willing to accept aid from China or the US? Right now, if pushed to the wall, I'd peg the chances of Egypt going to war with one of it's neighbors at something like 20%, which isn't huge, but is a far cry from zero.